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At the same time we also know that bubble-like patterns don’t always yield reliable predictions of future trends.
The Australian housing market looked just as bubbly as the US market in 2005, but since then has soared much higher.
The two notable exceptions were Germany and Japan, where prices fell sharply.
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More and more I think that the entire bubble/anti-EMH approach to economics is founded on nothing more than superstition.
Superstitions are caused by cognitive illusions; we think we notice more patterns than are actually there.
So most people would implicitly think; “Why praise someone for being right for the wrong reason?
” Of course this makes bubble theory into a near tautology, irrefutable in volatile asset markets that will almost always eventually show price decreases.
When I read predictions from people like Paul Krugman, I infer that there is an implied prediction that real prices will fall over some reasonable period of time—say 5 years.
And of course Krugman was right in predicting that real US housing prices would fall in the 5 years after 2005, as was Dean Baker, Nouriel Roubini, and some others who became well known and lauded for their predictions.
If someone said in 2005 that housing prices were a bubble, but still was unable to offer more than a 50/50 odds on whether real housing prices would rise or fall over the next 5 or 10 or 20 years, then what would their assertion actually mean?Tags: Adult Dating, affair dating, sex dating